sábado, 29 de diciembre de 2007

Caja Negra

Por Alfredo Zaiat

No es usual, más bien es anormal, encontrar titulares en los diarios o informes de consultoras de economía indicando sobre la magnitud de las tasas de rentabilidad empresaria. En cambio, resulta habitual hasta con rasgos obsesivos destacar los aumentos salariales y los reclamos por mejoras en los ingresos de los trabajadores. Se plantea como un gran debate nacional la necesidad de una discusión “racional” para las próximas paritarias y se recomienda, en algunos casos se exige, a los dirigentes sindicales moderación en los pedidos. No sucede lo mismo con la evolución de las ganancias de las empresas. En esos casos, no existe ese criterio de racionalidad ni de limitación que se exhorta a los trabajadores como contribución a la estabilidad de la economía.

Esa asimetría en el abordaje de la relación capital-trabajo tiene una raíz político-ideológica, aspecto que debe tenerse en cuenta para no quedar atrapado de la confusión. Esa línea de acción tiene su respaldo en la teoría económica convencional, fuente donde abreva la mayoría de los economistas que difunden esa particular cosmovisión del mundo: los aumentos de salarios benefician sólo a los trabajadores, mientras que los incrementos de las ganancias son la imagen de prosperidad para todos.


El mensaje es que la sociedad y los gobiernos deben cuidar la rentabilidad empresaria puesto que así se generalizará la bonanza y, a la vez, deben establecer límites a los asalariados debido a que con su voracidad por mejorar sus ingresos ponen en riesgo la armonía social. Se sabe que ese proceso es exactamente al revés, pero el discurso dominante ha calado hondo en la conciencia colectiva hasta el absurdo de que el trabajador tiene que dar las gracias por lo que le corresponde.

Discutir los niveles de la tasa de ganancias de las empresas brindaría racionalidad a la puja distributiva y alejaría varios de los fantasmas convocados al momento de la negociación salarial. Definir cuál es la tasa “normal” de ganancia ofrecería claridad a muchos de los conflictos que estallan. Además, entregaría pistas acerca de cuál es el compromiso del empresariado para la construcción de una sociedad integrada y, a la vez, revelería su vocación para impulsar un proyecto de desarrollo.

Pese a los lamentos extendidos, como preámbulo a la disputa por los salarios 2008, los indicadores de rentabilidad (margen por unidad de producto, la evolución de la masa de ganancias y la masa salarial, y utilidades sobre las ventas) superan los registrados antes de la devaluación. También son superiores a los alcanzados durante la “época dorada” de la convertibilidad y sólo se han reducido un poco en comparación con las “superganancias” obtenidas en el año posterior al violento ajuste del tipo de cambio, que deprimió salarios y costos laborales provocando una violenta distribución del ingreso.

Con el cambio del patrón de crecimiento a partir de esa devaluación, los sectores industriales fueron los beneficiados en relación con los de servicios, en un exacto cambio de roles al vigente durante los noventa. Las compañías de servicios no registraron superganancias como las contabilizadas por las industriales, pero esto no significa que no hayan tenido rentabilidad.

En el último informe del Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Argentino (Cenda) se presenta un detallado y didáctico documento sobre la dinámica de ese proceso, con el sugestivo título La trayectoria de las ganancias después de la devaluación: la “caja negra” del crecimiento argentino.

El grupo de jóvenes investigadores del Cenda, alejado del discurso económico convencional, explican que “algunos centros de estudios de tradicional inclinación ortodoxa afirman, no sin alarma, que la rentabilidad de las empresas se redujo fuertemente en los últimos años y advierten sobre las consecuencias que este deterioro podría traer sobre el desempeño de las inversiones”. Se refieren a un reciente informe del centro de investigaciones de la Fundación Mediterránea (Ieral) sobre la base de 69 empresas industriales, alimenticias, de energía y de servicios que publican sus balances en la Bolsa de Comercio, que refleja una caída de la rentabilidad sobre facturación de 14,7 a 12,4 por ciento, porcentaje que igualmente sigue siendo superior al vigente en los noventa.

Aquí aparece el debate sobre la tasa “normal” de ganancias. Resulta poco creíble, aunque no imposible teniendo en cuenta los antecedentes, que se pretenda fijar los niveles de ganancias del 2001-2002 como los de referencia para el equilibrio macroeconómico. Si así fuera, lo que se proyecta es un patrón distributivo profundamente desigual y con deprimidos salarios reales, que expone un modelo de desarrollo con un paraíso para unos pocos y un infierno para el resto.

Con la coordinación de Javier Rodríguez, los investigadores del Cenda se ocuparon además del selecto conjunto de las 500 empresas más grandes de la economía, lote que ha sido uno de los principales beneficiarios de la devaluación y el posterior crecimiento a tasas chinas. En esas compañías se verificó con más intensidad la dinámica del derrumbe del costo laboral y la recomposición de la rentabilidad desde 2002.

Esos especialistas explican que “pese a la ‘preocupación’ expresada por los grandes capitales, los aumentos salariales de los últimos años están muy lejos de poner en peligro la rentabilidad de la cúpula empresaria, que supera holgadamente a los niveles de la convertibilidad, una etapa que pocos catalogarían como adversa para el capital más concentrado”. Semejante bonanza se tradujo en un avance constante de la concentración económica en los últimos años.

La conclusión que extraen de la elaboración de indicadores en base a la Encuesta Nacional de Grandes Empresas del Indec es impactante: entre 2001 y 2005 (último dato disponible), ese grupo de 500 firmas aumentó en casi un 50 por ciento su participación en el valor agregado. En concreto, “hoy controlan nada menos que el 23 por ciento del producto bruto nacional, valor que en 2001 era del 16 y en 1997, del 14 por ciento”, estimaron los economistas del Cenda.

No es novedad que el beneficio empresario es el verdadero motor de la actividad económica en la sociedad capitalista. La cuestión reside en establecer cuál es el origen de la ganancia y cómo se distribuye.

En forma sintética, si se considera el trabajo como la fuente genuina de riqueza, la ganancia es una porción de esa riqueza creada por el trabajador que es apropiada por el empresario. En cambio, si se considera que tanto el trabajo como el capital crean ambos el producto y su valor, la ganancia es la retribución al aporte del capital a la producción. En esta segunda concepción –la neoclásica, ortodoxa–, todo aumento del salario real viene a amenazar entonces la tasa de ganancia, pero no siempre es así si la producción y, en especial, la productividad crecen. Pero para ello, el empresario debe invertir comprometiendo capital, asumiendo riesgos que, en general, quieren acotar con protección estatal, congelando o reduciendo salarios, o con garantía de superganancias.

En la actual coyuntura se necesita un importante esfuerzo inversor destinado a aumentar la productividad debido a que la capacidad ociosa se ha agotado. Pero la condición que exponen para invertir es que los salarios no aumenten demasiado, argumento dirigido a preservar rentabilidades extraordinarias.

El círculo virtuoso del crecimiento al desarrollo se promueve cuando la caída en la participación de las ganancias en la distribución del ingreso no implica un desaliento para el capital. Esto se verifica cuando la tasa de ganancia converge a su nivel “normal”, que en la economía argentina es bastante superior a la que se registra en los países centrales. Pero cuando se aspira a preservar superganancias se exacerba la puja distributiva, cuya exteriorización es la inflación y morosidad en los proyectos de inversión. “Por esa vía extorsiva –enfatizan los economistas del Cenda–, se pretende decretar la clausura de la etapa de recuperación salarial, so amenaza de estrangulamiento de ganancias.” Nada más lejano de la realidad, exhiben las frías estadísticas.

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